NTRP Rating Calculator

Expected performance

The model estimates an expected share of games based on the rating difference between you and your opponent.

Match performance level

It then asks what rating level would make the actual score approximately expected against the opponent you entered.

Rating impact

It combines your entered rating with the estimated match-performance level using a simple rolling-average assumption.

Rating reliability

The reliability setting you choose determines how much prior information the model assumes is already behind your entered rating, and therefore how much a single match can move the estimate:

• New / uncertain — the model treats the current rating as if it has relatively little prior evidence behind it (internal prior weight 2).
• Established — the model treats the current rating as if it has a meaningful body of prior evidence behind it (internal prior weight 4).

These weights are deliberately simple and transparent. They are not estimates of the number of matches USTA uses and do not reproduce USTA's proprietary Dynamic NTRP calculation.